Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537

Issued

Jul 28, 2012, 6:02 PM CDT (23:02 UTC)

Expired

Jul 28, 2012, 9:56 PM CDT

In force

4 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1.5 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

70%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1641Jul 28, 9:06 PM CDT

477 
WWUS20 KWNS 282304
SEL7
SPC WW 282304
KSZ000-NEZ000-290600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
       CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 605 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF CONCORDIA KANSAS.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 535...WW 536...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING WITHIN A HOT...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
ALONG AND W OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM W OF BBW TO N OF CNK.
AIR MASS INVOF OF BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500+ J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH.  WHEN
COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED...MULTICELL OR PULSE CLUSTERS W OF WARM
FRONT...AND PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELLS ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH SEVERE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28010.


...MEAD

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Nebraska, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.