Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 19, 2012, 3:48 PM CDT for 10 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 19, 2012, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 19, 2012, 11:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 24 counties
Clay County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 40%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 3:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Nelson, Ramsey, Walsh | 27 min |
| Jul 19, 5:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Polk | 62 min |
| Jul 19, 6:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Grand Forks, Steele, Traill | 52 min |
| Jul 19, 8:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Towner | 56 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 275 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1864 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -264 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1973 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 129 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 114 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 1:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Clay, Douglas, Grant, Lac qui Parle, Otter Tail and 5 more | 64 min |
| Jul 19, 6:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Otter Tail and 4 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.