Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485

Issued

Jul 14, 2012, 2:27 PM MDT (20:27 UTC)

Expired

Jul 14, 2012, 11:00 PM MDT

In force

9 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Pendleton radar (KPDT), 171 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

20%

Ten or more severe hail reports

20%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

40%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1465Jul 14, 1:57 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1469Jul 14, 6:23 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1470Jul 14, 10:33 PM MDT

056 
WWUS20 KWNS 142028
SEL5
SPC WW 142028
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-150500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       IDAHO
       EASTERN OREGON
       SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
1000 PM PDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF BAKER OREGON TO 70 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LOWELL IDAHO.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
DEVELOP EAST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ORE/SERN WA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
CNTRL ID THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER LOW/VORTICITY CENTER
BEGINS TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL ACT ON A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHILE A BAND OF 30-40KT
MID LEVEL FLOW PIVOTS AROUND THE EJECTING IMPULSE TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE.
FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE MIGRATING NORTH WITHIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WIND/HAIL
POTENTIAL ACROSS SERN ID THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...CARBIN

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Idaho, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oregon, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Washington, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.