Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383

Issued

Jun 12, 2012, 2:44 PM MDT (20:44 UTC)

Expired

Jun 12, 2012, 11:00 PM MDT

In force

8 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2.5 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 165 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

40%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

50%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

80%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1140Jun 12, 1:02 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1142Jun 12, 1:45 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1143Jun 12, 2:00 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1147Jun 12, 6:38 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1148Jun 12, 8:11 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1149Jun 12, 10:11 PM MDT

271 
WWUS20 KWNS 122045
SEL3  
SPC WW 122045
NMZ000-TXZ000-130400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
       WESTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FORT STOCKTON
TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...WW 382...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR WRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING OWING TO SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME.  AMBIENT INFLOW
AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED
WITH A WIND PROFILE FEATURING PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...MEAD

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.