Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 996

May 31, 201218 parishes in Louisiana; 42 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2012, 1:53 PM CDT for 18 parishes in Louisiana; 42 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 31, 2012, 1:53 PM CDT (18:53 UTC)
Expired
May 31, 2012, 3:00 PM CDT
In force
67 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 60 counties

Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Attala County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2012-05-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1744 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2012-05-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 70 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1744 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-59 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
674 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

134 
ACUS11 KWNS 311854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311853
MSZ000-LAZ000-312000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SRN AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327...

VALID 311853Z - 312000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL
MS THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST OF WW 327 LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN
LA JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG IN SRN MS TO
ALMOST 2000 J/KG IN NCNTRL MS. THIS SUGGESTS THE GREATER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS CNTRL MS WHERE WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ESTIMATED AT
JUST ABOVE 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS WITH WIND
DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE CELLS THAT PULSE UP AND MATURE IN INTENSITY.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30038986 30458912 30928862 31718866 32648866 33408894
            33548918 33408981 33119045 32959080 32509132 31789168
            31189154 30259142 29759117 29679076 30038986

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 31, 9:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 7 more58 min
May 31, 10:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 37 more6 hr
May 31, 2:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles and 4 more5 hr
May 31, 11:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 32 more61 min
May 31, 12:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 41 more6 hr
May 31, 2:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 38 more67 min
May 31, 5:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPrentiss, Tishomingo2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.