Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 978

May 30, 20125 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2012, 12:36 PM EDT for 5 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 30, 2012, 12:36 PM EDT (16:36 UTC)
Expired
May 30, 2012, 1:30 PM EDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Carteret County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Pamlico County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-05-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1043 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-05-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 91 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1043 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
2.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

252 
ACUS11 KWNS 301636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301636 
NCZ000-301730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ILM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 301636Z - 301730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
BE ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY PLACES THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL NEAR WILMINGTON NC. RAINBANDS
EXTEND OUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WITH SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF
MOREHEAD CITY EXTENDING SWD OFF THE COAST. MESOANALYSIS IN FAR ERN
NC SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE
MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 40 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR WHICH ALONG
WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.00 INCHES
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW ROTATING CLOUD BASES. AS THE DISCRETE
CELLS MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTHWEST...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD EXIST. THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO
THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED SFC HEATING...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 05/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

LAT...LON   35837561 35697637 35217717 34737714 34567670 34777608
            35207536 35837561

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.