Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 970

May 29, 20124 counties in Maryland; 8 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2012, 7:48 PM EDT for 4 counties in Maryland; 8 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 29, 2012, 7:48 PM EDT (23:48 UTC)
Expired
May 29, 2012, 8:45 PM EDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Anne Arundel County, MD, Charles County, MD, Kent County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Caroline County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, Goochland County, VA, King George County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2012-05-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 601 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2012-05-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -68 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
601 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1156 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-68 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

836 
ACUS11 KWNS 292349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292348
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-300045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA INTO NRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...

VALID 292348Z - 300045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL PERSIST FROM NERN VA INTO NRN MD NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL
THREAT EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD
THROUGH NRN AND SWRN VA. THE VA/MA PORTION OF THE LINE IS MOVING
EAST AT AROUND 25 KT AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AS THE LINE CONTINUES THROUGH REMAINING PORTION OF WW 316...BUT
OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR SEVERE THREAT TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.

..DIAL.. 05/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37667845 39017694 39477582 38997625 37747758 37667845

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 4:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFrederick, Washington53 min
May 29, 4:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaltimore, Carroll, Charles, Frederick, Harford, Howard and 4 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.