Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 965
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2012, 3:39 PM CDT for Spencer County, Indiana; 19 counties in Kentucky; 13 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2012, 3:39 PM CDT (20:39 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2012, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 33 counties
Spencer County, IN, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Christian County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Webster County, KY, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Weakley County, TN
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 651 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -100 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1183 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 135 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 124 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
240
ACUS11 KWNS 292040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292039
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-292215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...FAR SRN IND...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292039Z - 292215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR
SRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
THE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...A SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF PADUCAH KY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF SHORTWAVE AND
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN KY WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70 F. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -12 C WILL ALSO MAKE HAIL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IF
DESTABILIZATION CAN CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 38168709 36818844 36268898 35818906 35468865 35448807
36298714 37468619 37998614 38168709Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.