Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 936
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2012, 11:00 AM EDT for Duval County, Nassau County, Saint Johns County, Florida; 17 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 90 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2012, 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2012, 12:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Duval County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Appling County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Camden County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Glynn County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Long County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Wheeler County, GA
The radar
The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 39 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 464 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
318
ACUS11 KWNS 281501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281500
GAZ000-FLZ000-281630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA...FAR NE FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281500Z - 281630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE FL AND SERN GA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BERYL ABOUT 60 STATUTE MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE FL.
MESOANALYSIS DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
2.10 INCHES EXTENDING NEWD FROM BERYL'S CENTER ACROSS NE FL AND SE
GA WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE UPDRAFTS
TO EXHIBIT ROTATION. AS BERYL MOVES SLOWLY WWD...THE THREAT MAY
EXTEND FURTHER INLAND ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
RESULT IN SFC HEATING IN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE. STORMS THAT ROTATE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF BERYL
THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 05/28/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32238206 32308262 32218282 31938303 31578309 31288265
30948225 30348185 29938175 29818140 29978107 30518083
31178090 31938158 32238206Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.