Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 935
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2012, 8:09 AM EDT for 9 counties in New York. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2012, 8:09 AM EDT (12:09 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2012, 9:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 248 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 712 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -178 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1058 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 286 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 283 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
321
ACUS11 KWNS 281209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281209
NYZ000-281345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281209Z - 281345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THE SYRACUSE AND UTICA AREAS BY 14-16Z...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO
FAIRLY MODEST INSTABILITY...LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR...ACTIVITY
HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS. HOWEVER...STRONGER UPDRAFT
PULSES APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR FROM MODEL GUIDANCE HOW MUCH LONGER
FORCING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION WILL PERSIST...BUT...WITH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AROUND 25 KT...ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE SYRACUSE
AND UTICA AREAS BY 14-16Z. IF STORMS SURVIVE THIS LONG...THEY COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO NEW...PERHAPS MORE VIGOROUS... BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE WITH
INSOLATION ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE...THE
CATSKILLS AND HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD MID DAY.
..KERR/MEAD.. 05/28/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43857639 43607470 43277428 42847434 42587468 42577527
42627577 42937680 43417705 43867668 43857639SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 11:19 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Greene and 6 more | 56 min |
| May 28, 2:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung, Delaware and 14 more | 65 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.