Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 906

May 26, 201210 counties in Minnesota; 23 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2012, 5:43 AM CDT for 10 counties in Minnesota; 23 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2012, 5:43 AM CDT (10:43 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2012, 7:15 AM CDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%
All 33 counties

Big Stone County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Beadle County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brown County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Marshall County, SD, Miner County, SD, Moody County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2012-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2012-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 23 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1774 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
54 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

363 
ACUS11 KWNS 261044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261043
MNZ000-SDZ000-261215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SW/W CNTRL
MN...SERN NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261043Z - 261215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME STRONG...WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH MID MORNING.  THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY
CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING...THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 14-15Z.  THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY VIGOROUS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
AND STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR.  OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
REMAIN POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
LIMITED.

..KERR/MEAD.. 05/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44440021 45589939 45959641 45149505 44299520 43919679
            44019853 44440021

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 26, 12:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFaribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston, Mower89 min
May 26, 1:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Bennett, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix and 15 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.