Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 898

May 25, 2012Clark County, Comanche County, Seward County, Kansas; 9 counties in Oklahoma; 15 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2012, 6:34 PM CDT for Clark County, Comanche County, Seward County, Kansas; 9 counties in Oklahoma; 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 25, 2012, 6:34 PM CDT (23:34 UTC)
Expired
May 25, 2012, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 27 counties

Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Seward County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Donley County, TX, Foard County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-05-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-05-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 97 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
4729 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

181 
ACUS11 KWNS 252334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252334 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-260030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK...FAR SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 252334Z - 260030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK AND SW KS. INCREASING TRENDS OF CONVECTIVE
SUGGESTS PORTIONS A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCUR INVOF A WWD RETREATING
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONALLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM EJECTING NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH IS LIKELY
AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. 23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CINH REMAINING. HOWEVER...20Z MOBILE SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M TEAM
NEAR ALTUS HAD SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE ACTIVITY WILL LAST BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

..MOSIER/HART.. 05/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34100095 33770046 33819972 33889914 34229906 35039911
            35899918 36739923 37209918 37249979 37170113 37130126
            36890124 36210115 34100095

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 3:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth and 19 more2 hr
May 25, 6:48 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarton, Ellis, Ellsworth, Lincoln, Mitchell, Ness and 6 more5 hr
May 25, 6:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Gray and 6 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.