Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 897

May 25, 201211 counties in Indiana; 38 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2012, 6:12 PM EDT for 11 counties in Indiana; 38 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2012, 6:12 PM EDT (22:12 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2012, 7:45 PM EDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 49 counties

Delaware County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Henry County, IN, Jay County, IN, Madison County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Rush County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Allen County, OH, Ashland County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Portage County, OH, Preble County, OH, Richland County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 65 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -197 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1358 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 147 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 141 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

856 
ACUS11 KWNS 252213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252212
PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IND...CTRNL/NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252212Z - 252345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS WRN IND AND CNTRL/NWRN OH. SOME SEVERE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS BUT THE BREVITY/COVERAGE OF THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN IND AND CNTRL/WRN OH DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS
OF IL AND IND TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO.
SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S HAVE
RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE
BOUNDARY. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES...WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW BUT
A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE LOW-END SEVERE HAIL. ANTICIPATED
BREVITY/COVERAGE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR A
WW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 05/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40068614 40658460 41138324 41418227 41498168 41578111
            41398064 41148049 40908057 40428138 39838322 39458454
            39478517 39608561 40068614

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.