Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 884
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2012, 7:37 PM MDT for 7 counties in Colorado; 4 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 23, 2012, 7:37 PM MDT (01:37 UTC)
- Expired
- May 23, 2012, 9:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Wallace County, KS
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 712 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 83 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 8 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 265 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
156
ACUS11 KWNS 240138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240137
KSZ000-COZ000-240300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 240137Z - 240300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE STRONG
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A HIGH SHEAR/VERY LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. KPUX
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS WHAT ARE LIKELY LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS
MOVING E ACROSS E CO. KPUX VAD INDICATES 0-3KM SRH VALUES OVER 600
M2/S2. DESPITE THESE LARGE VALUES...THE VERY LOW CAPE AND DRY
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW. THESE SAME FACTORS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT LOW. DCAPE VALUES AOA
1000 J/KG EXISTS AROUND THESE STORMS AND PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.
..MOSIER/HART.. 05/24/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38120446 38510448 38810432 39440389 39630346 39740272
39550161 38930144 38240155 37830193 37780239 37860279
38120446SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 9:29 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ellis, Graham, Jewell, Mitchell, Norton, Osborne and 4 more | 91 min |
| May 23, 9:47 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Decatur, Graham, Jewell, Mitchell, Norton, Osborne and 4 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.