Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 873

May 22, 201215 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2012, 6:54 PM CDT for 15 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 22, 2012, 6:54 PM CDT (23:54 UTC)
Expired
May 22, 2012, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Kidder County, ND, McHenry County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Towner County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2012-05-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 242 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2012-05-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -1 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
242 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-610 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1843 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
103 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

152 
ACUS11 KWNS 222354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222354 
NDZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 290...

VALID 222354Z - 230130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 290 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

DISCUSSION...RECENT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS FOCUSED
NEAR A SURFACE LOW CENTER WEST OF MINOT...WHERE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSING EAST NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTRIBUTES TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THIS CELL PROBABLY WILL
MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING CLUSTER OF STORMS EMERGING FROM
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.  AND FURTHER UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 02-03Z...INCLUDING EVENTUAL
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE
OF A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD STRENGTHENING TO 30-50
KT... IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION FROM
MAINLY LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO GENERALLY POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR.. 05/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49019864 47629833 46529950 46640055 47390098 47980148
            48450179 49050197 49360193 49690068 49679969 49019864

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 22, 3:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenson, Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Dunn, Eddy and 20 more91 min
May 22, 4:03 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarnes, Benson, Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Divide and 21 more7 hr
May 22, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCass, Dickey, Emmons, Grand Forks, LaMoure, Logan and 6 more7 hr
May 22, 6:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Billings, Bowman, Hettinger, Slope, Stark94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.