Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 861

May 21, 20127 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2012, 4:18 PM MDT for 7 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2012, 4:18 PM MDT (22:18 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2012, 5:45 PM MDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 849 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -54 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 631 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

777 
ACUS11 KWNS 212218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212218 
TXZ000-NMZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287...

VALID 212218Z - 212345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
READILY EVIDENT...AND...TO THIS POINT...INITIATION OF STORMS HAS
GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AIDED BY A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. 
HOWEVER...AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS...CONSOLIDATING COLD
POOLS MAY STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA TOWARD THE TUCUMCARI AREA THROUGH
00-01Z...AIDED BY LIGHT BUT MODESTLY SHEARED NORTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW.  MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO APPEARS MODERATELY LARGE...WITH CAPPING WEAK...AND THE
EVOLUTION OF AN SMALL BUT ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SEEMS POSSIBLE...WITH A SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 05/21/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36720477 36540305 35530266 34640305 34420398 34900459
            35590518 36180520 36720477

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 11:59 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding, Mora and 4 more	91 min
May 21, 2:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding, Mora and 4 more	8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.