Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 856

May 20, 20126 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 20, 2012, 7:32 PM CDT for 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 20, 2012, 7:32 PM CDT (00:32 UTC)
Expired
May 20, 2012, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Dickens County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Stonewall County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-05-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 210 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-05-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 33 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
210 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-268 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2495 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

266 
ACUS11 KWNS 210032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210032 
TXZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...

VALID 210032Z - 210200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 286 PROBABLY SHOULD BE CONTINUED AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO...BUT IT COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED 04Z EXPIRATION
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...INITIAL STORM...NEAR INTERSECTION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
AND SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...HAS DISSIPATED SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA
FALLS...BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA.  ALTHOUGH CAPE IS STILL MODERATELY LARGE
AND INHIBITION APPEARS WEAK...ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...BENEATH 30+ KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  SUPPORT FOR
A SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF MORE RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IS NOT OBVIOUS. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR OUT
OF THE QUESTION THROUGH 01-02Z...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONT...TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK...WHERE LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONGEST.

..KERR.. 05/21/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33240130 33630090 33689968 33719933 32999960 33060018
            33140053 33240130

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 21, 12:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Moore and 2 more91 min
May 21, 3:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBailey, Castro, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hale, Hartley and 8 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.