Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 832
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 18, 2012, 4:54 PM CDT for 23 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 18, 2012, 4:54 PM CDT (21:54 UTC)
- Expired
- May 18, 2012, 6:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 23 counties
Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN
The radar
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1992 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 154 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 274 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
046
ACUS11 KWNS 182154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182154
MNZ000-IAZ000-182300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182154Z - 182300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID-EVENING. A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A N-S BAND OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
STC SWD TO JUST N OF FRM...APPARENTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE T-TD SPREADS ARE APPROACHING 50 F. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUB-OPTIMAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SUSTENANCE...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG MAY PROMOTE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH RESULTANT SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LEVELS.
..MEAD.. 05/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43599508 45199480 46019458 46329423 46339337 45699304
44559322 43759366 43579418 43489462 43599508Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.