Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 828
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 17, 2012, 1:29 PM MDT for 5 counties in Colorado; 22 counties in Kansas; Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 17, 2012, 1:29 PM MDT (19:29 UTC)
- Expired
- May 17, 2012, 3:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 29 counties
Baca County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 154 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2222 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 173 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
868
ACUS11 KWNS 171929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171929
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-172130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-WRN KS / SERN CO / OK PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171929Z - 172130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSE A SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CO AS A BELT OF 30 KT H5 FLOW WRAPS AROUND
ITS SERN SEMICIRCLE AND OVERSPREADS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DURING THE
PAST HR...A GROWING CU/TCU FIELD HAS ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM 25 MI SE TAD TO ITR. A DRY
WELL-MIXED AND VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEVELOPED FEATURING DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL KM. CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LARGE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SUBSTANTIAL
OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MATURE. GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
PROFILE...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN A RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AREA FROM THE OK
PANHANDLE NWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...A
RISK FOR ISOLD HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..SMITH/HART.. 05/17/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36680268 37190315 39660265 39820113 39129998 37400013
36630112 36440199 36680268Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.