Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 823
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2012, 12:24 PM EDT for 20 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2012, 12:24 PM EDT (16:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2012, 1:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Beaufort County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 49 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2326 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 531 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
463
ACUS11 KWNS 161624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161624
NCZ000-161730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161624Z - 161730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLD WET MICROBURST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS SCTD TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
DISCUSSION...LATE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA SHOW SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE SC GRAND STRAND NEWD TO
CAPE LOOKOUT WITHIN AN AGITATED CU FIELD. THE 12Z MHX RAOB
EXHIBITED STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /2500 J/KG MLCAPE/...AND THE
RAOB/S CONVECTIVE TEMP /77 DEG/ HAS ALREADY BEEN BREACHED AS 16Z
SURFACE OBS RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. FURTHER CONVECTIVE-SCALE
COLLISIONS AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CIRCULATIONS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FOCUS/LIFT TO CONTINUALLY GENERATE STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE NEWD AROUND 25 KTS. A DEEP/MOISTURE RICH
TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WITHIN MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR ISOLD
WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ADDITIONAL RISK
/LOW-ISOLD/ FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS AS WELL. THE LIMITED SPATIAL/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WATCH.
..SMITH/HART.. 05/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34357888 36397623 36057520 35207540 33887848 34047874
34357888SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 8:42 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Burke and 47 more | 63 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.