Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 820

May 15, 20127 counties in Illinois; 5 counties in Iowa; 9 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2012, 4:58 PM CDT for 7 counties in Illinois; 5 counties in Iowa; 9 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2012, 4:58 PM CDT (21:58 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2012, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 21 counties

Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Linn County, IA, Boone County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Green County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -8 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2205 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

854 
ACUS11 KWNS 152159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152158
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-152300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IA...NRN IL...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152158Z - 152300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER TSTM CORES THIS
EVENING FROM SRN WI...ACROSS NRN IL INTO SERN IA.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SUNSHINE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SERN IA INTO SRN WI.  SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THIS REGION
BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEEPENED.  MODEL
FORECAST DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE AT LEAST 10 DEG F TOO
HIGH BUT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH
BASED CONVECTION WITH BASES LIKELY NEAR 700 MB.  ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK...GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IT WOULD
SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER CORES.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42099176 43318870 43008741 42258795 41569118 42099176

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 2:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Jo Daviess, Kane and 7 more54 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.