Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 811
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2012, 6:14 PM EDT for 19 counties in North Carolina; 10 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2012, 6:14 PM EDT (22:14 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2012, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 29 counties
Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -122 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 713 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
551
ACUS11 KWNS 142215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142214
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-142315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PIEDMONT REGION OF NC...SC...AND FAR NERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142214Z - 142315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW
IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED ASCENT HAS SUPPORTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD INTO A ZONE OF
MLCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION...WHERE A
BROAD AREA OF INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. MODESTLY
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MINOR IMPULSE
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO AROUND 30 KT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND
AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 00Z AS INCREASING CINH
IS DRIVEN BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 36388028 35708028 34618114 34288251 34688343 35288287
35978174 36408101 36388028SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2:30 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Cumberland, Duplin, Jones and 7 more | 60 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.