Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 801

May 13, 20129 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 13, 2012, 1:40 PM MDT for 9 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 13, 2012, 1:40 PM MDT (19:40 UTC)
Expired: May 13, 2012, 3:45 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

Counties Bernalillo County, NM, Chaves County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Sierra County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Valencia County, NM

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275May 13, 2:35 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 114 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -184 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1384 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 147 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 185 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

496 
ACUS11 KWNS 131940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131940 
NMZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-SRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 131940Z - 132145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN-CNTRL NM...AND
MOVE NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND RESULT IN INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING
CU/TCU FIELD BLOSSOMING INTO SCTD TSTMS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HRS. 
THIS IS LARGELY DUE 1) AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT
TO THE APPROACHING 4 CORNERS S/W TROUGH...2) STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
REMOVING CINH.  SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SELY
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A MORE MOIST/LESS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THAT IS CONFINED TO THE ERN PLAINS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH PW
GRADIENT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT.  AS TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 DEG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM...IN TURN BEING VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE
MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  APPRECIABLE CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 LAYER
AND A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL --
PROMPTING AT LEAST SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE WW.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33220739 34640738 35140721 35490646 34990482 32920405
            32210496 32380617 33220739

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 13, 2:36 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Chaves, Doña Ana, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Otero and 4 more	6 hr
May 13, 4:56 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Otero, Sierra and 1 more	64 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.