Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 793

May 12, 201217 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 12, 2012, 1:40 AM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2012, 1:40 AM CDT (06:40 UTC)
Expired
May 12, 2012, 2:45 AM CDT
In force
65 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Brazoria County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Polk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Walker County, TX

The radar

The Houston radar (KHGX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 00:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 00:00Z on 2012-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 21 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 00:00Z on 2012-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 45 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
21 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-209 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
694 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
117 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

145 
ACUS11 KWNS 120641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120640
LAZ000-TXZ000-120745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METRO AREA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 274...

VALID 120640Z - 120745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 274 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 274...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DECREASING
BULK SHEAR.  MEANWHILE...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /1-1.5 INCH PER HOUR/
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITHIN A 25 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM FORT BEND COUNTY EWD THROUGH SRN
HARRIS AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...AT 0545Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SLOW ENEWD
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX...WITH THE SRN EXTENT
OF APPARENT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDING IN MAINTAINING THE
ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE NRN PART OF WW 274 AND W-E THROUGH THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA.  REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY WWD THROUGH NRN BRAZORIA TO SRN FORT
BEND COUNTIES.  A SWLY 20-30 KT LLJ FROM THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL
AREA WILL PROVIDE A FEED OF MODERATE-STRONG MUCAPE /2000-3000 J PER
KG/ RESIDING OVER THE MIDDLE-SRN TX COAST INTO THE ONGOING EWD
TRAINING TSTMS FROM FORT BEND TO CHAMBERS COUNTIES.  PW VALUES RANGE
FROM 1.5-1.75 INCH ACROSS SE TX/UPPER TX COAST AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KT BY 12Z.  THESE
FACTORS SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FORT
BEND/HARRIS COUNTIES AND TRAIN EWD...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO
2 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

FARTHER N OVER THE NRN PART OF WW 274...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW.

..PETERS.. 05/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29519331 28779472 28689513 28789557 29349597 29779605
            30279589 30889577 31379500 31119463 31189351 30379368
            29789384 29759330 29519331

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 11, 7:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Hardin, Harris and 10 more32 min
May 11, 7:36 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin, Harris and 11 more6 hr
May 11, 10:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin, Harris and 11 more89 min
May 12, 4:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, Willacy55 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.