Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 775

May 10, 201215 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2012, 2:17 PM EDT for 15 counties in Florida. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2012, 2:17 PM EDT (18:17 UTC)
Expired
May 10, 2012, 4:15 PM EDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Brevard County, FL, Broward County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Martin County, FL, Miami-Dade County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Polk County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cape Canaveral, FL at 12:00Z on 2012-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 105 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cape Canaveral, FL at 12:00Z on 2012-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 54 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
105 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-114 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
858 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

588 
ACUS11 KWNS 101818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101817
FLZ000-102015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101817Z - 102015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTN WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
A WW IS NOT IMMEDIATELY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN
THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27808041 28038044 28428063 28138218 27478218 26228146
            25308032 26597992 27218019 27218019 27808041

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.