Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 738

May 6, 201222 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 6, 2012, 6:05 PM CDT for 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 6, 2012, 6:05 PM CDT (23:05 UTC)
Expired
May 6, 2012, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
55 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 22 counties

Angelina County, TX, Austin County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Houston County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Madison County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Polk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX

The radar

The Houston radar (KHGX), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-05-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1142 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-05-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 17 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1142 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
894 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

319 
ACUS11 KWNS 062305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062305 
LAZ000-TXZ000-070000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062305Z - 070000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
IS BEGINNING TO FORM EAST OF LHB AND NORTHWEST OF DWH. A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WEAKENED MCV...A RESULT OF YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX.
THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...EAST OF WHERE MIXING HAS RESULTED IN
A SUBTLE DEW POINT GRADIENT NEAR LHB. PROFILER DATA INDICATES
MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS OWING
TO THE SUBTLE UPPER WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH CNTRL/E CNTRL TX. AS A
RESULT...A SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND
DRIFT EWD...WITH INITIAL THREATS OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL. GIVEN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PWAT AIR MASS...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

..HURLBUT/THOMPSON.. 05/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30289652 31729552 32089464 31879412 31339375 30369374
            29819433 29729531 29869638 30289652

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 5, 8:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlanco, Brown, Burnet, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 11 more53 min
May 6, 5:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaylor, Brown, Burnet, Callahan, Coke, Coleman and 21 more60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.