Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 689
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 4, 2012, 12:19 AM EDT for 15 counties in New York; Bradford County, Tioga County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 4, 2012, 12:19 AM EDT (04:19 UTC)
- Expired
- May 4, 2012, 1:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Broome County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Tioga County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 631 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 81 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
434
ACUS11 KWNS 040419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040419
NYZ000-PAZ000-040545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY...FAR N-CNTRL PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040419Z - 040545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL/LOCALIZED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TIED TO A BROKEN LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS
PROGRESSING E/SEWD INTO CNTRL NY AND PERHAPS FAR N-CNTRL PA.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDED FROM FRANKLIN TO
ALLEGANY COUNTY NY AND HAS BEEN RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E/SEWD...DRIVEN
BY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT W/SWLYS AT 2-5 KM AGL PER THE BUF VAD
WIND PROFILE. MODIFIED 00Z BUF/DTX RAOBS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS
ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE PER 00Z NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH APPEAR MORE REASONABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY COMPARED
TO 02Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GIVEN DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG...WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY METARS WITH PASSAGE OF
THE LINE IN WRN NY...BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AS THE LINE
PROGRESSES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY. AS SUCH...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 05/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 43347574 43727481 43767426 43387404 42807439 42037528
41707651 41677702 41827756 42007761 42687668 43347574SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 1:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Armstrong, Bedford, Berks, Blair, Bucks and 47 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.