Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 686

May 3, 201224 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2012, 8:36 PM EDT for 24 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 24 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2012, 8:36 PM EDT (00:36 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2012, 9:00 PM EDT
In force
24 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 24 counties

Allegan County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2012-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 682 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2012-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 113 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
682 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1887 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
151 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

811 
ACUS11 KWNS 040036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040036 
MIZ000-INZ000-040100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231...

VALID 040036Z - 040100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PART OF
SWRN THROUGH SERN LOWER MI WITH AN AREAL EXTENSION FOR THE REST OF
SERN LOWER MI...AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 0020Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE STRONGEST
STORMS WITHIN WW 231 WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SWRN LOWER
MI...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY
EXTENDING FROM LIVINGSTON TO ST. CLAIR COUNTIES.  STRONG STORMS ARE
ALSO MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT SWRN LOWER MI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DIURNALLY STABILIZE...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF
BULK SHEAR SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL ABOUT
03Z.

..PETERS.. 05/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41738351 41708486 41778685 42458631 42588505 43028416
            43388334 43678211 43098227 42508257 42038310 41738351

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.