Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 63
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 24, 2012, 12:28 PM CST for 64 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 24, 2012, 12:28 PM CST (18:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 24, 2012, 2:30 PM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 64 counties
Anderson County, TX, Angelina County, TX, Atascosa County, TX, Austin County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Comal County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Harris County, TX, Hays County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Houston County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Llano County, TX, Madison County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Medina County, TX, Menard County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Polk County, TX, Real County, TX, Robertson County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Travis County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wilson County, TX
The radar
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 268 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1959 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 196 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 229 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
704
ACUS11 KWNS 241828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241828
TXZ000-242030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241828Z - 242030Z
RAPID WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 65-70 F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS DEEP S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST...RESULTING IN
MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG DESPITE LIMITED HEATING.
SPORADIC STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND HAVE SHOWED
SIGNS OF HAIL AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN THUS
FAR AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT IS LACK OF FORCING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SHEAR MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN A FEW SEVERE HAIL STORMS
WELL N OF THE FRONT INTO CNTRL TX. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
PROFILES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL THREAT...WITH 1.00 - 1.75 INCH
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.
THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD WITH TIME ALONG WITH THE
DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MAY APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATER
TODAY.
..JEWELL.. 01/24/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29569531 29699648 29139777 28739897 29379993 30330020
30989985 31709840 32579702 32539552 31749467 30889441
30279440 29709469 29569531Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.