Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 368

March 27, 2012Brewster County, Terrell County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 27, 2012, 4:03 PM CDT for Brewster County, Terrell County, Texas. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 27, 2012, 4:03 PM CDT (21:03 UTC)
Expired: Mar 27, 2012, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Brewster County, TX, Terrell County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 206 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 946 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -265 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1399 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

792 
ACUS11 KWNS 272104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272103
TXZ000-272230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272103Z - 272230Z

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
APPEARS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SURFACE HEATING HAS YIELDED MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  EVAPORATIVE COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH SIZABLE LOWER/MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BENEATH LIGHT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY TEND TO ALLOW FOR EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS SURFACE COLD
POOLS CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN.  IF LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT IS
ABLE TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE SANDERSON AREA WITH A RISK
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TOWARD 23-01Z.

..KERR.. 03/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   30400348 30740245 30710190 29970194 29780224 29720312
            29790342 30060350 30400348

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 27, 6:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Coke, Crockett, Edwards, Glasscock, Irion, Kinney and 9 more	95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.