Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 364

March 26, 201213 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 26, 2012, 5:33 PM CDT for 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 26, 2012, 5:33 PM CDT (22:33 UTC)
Expired: Mar 26, 2012, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Swisher County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2710 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -46 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 262234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262233
TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262233Z - 270000Z

AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AND PRODUCE STRONG/MARGINALLY
SVR WIND GUSTS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH PLAINS. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND
OF DISORGANIZED...HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS IN PROXIMITY TO A
SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA. ASCENT ALONG THIS AXIS
AND ALONG THE DRYLINE INVOF THE TX/NM BORDER...COMBINED WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING...MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO EVOLVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
/AS EVIDENCED EARLIER IN SRN RANDALL COUNTY/. FURTHERMORE...A PLUME
OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL SUPPORT SOME
EROSION OF THE ANTECEDENT CAP...SUBSTANTIATING SOME THREAT /ALBEIT
SMALL/ FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. DESPITE FAIRLY MEAGER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/...MODIFIED
12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
PRESENT OWING TO THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG OR MARGINALLY SVR STORMS.
THE DEEP...WELL MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER COMBINED WITH AROUND 20 KT OF
SLY BACKGROUND FLOW PER LUBBOCK VWP BELOW 1 KM AGL WOULD SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR WINDS. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WOULD KEEP THIS THREAT VERY ISOLATED. THE THREAT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER 0030Z AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION COMMENCES.

..COHEN.. 03/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35390095 34100092 33150102 33090197 33550228 34390225
            35370210 35930158 35960123 35390095

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 26, 3:14 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Dawson, Ector and 14 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.