Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 3

January 2, 2012Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2012, 3:50 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 2, 2012, 3:50 AM EST (08:50 UTC)
Expired: Jan 2, 2012, 9:45 AM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 956 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 405 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 400 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

294 
ACUS11 KWNS 020850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020850 
NYZ000-021445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CST MON JAN 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...DOWNSTREAM OF LK ONTARIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 020850Z - 021445Z

INITIAL LK EFFECT SNOW BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT SWD AND WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH RATES INCREASING TO NEAR 2
IN/HR...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 3 IN/HR IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

08Z METARS AT KART AND KGTB CONFIRM RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW
WITHIN A LK EFFECT PRECIPITATION BAND CENTERED ACROSS JEFFERSON INTO
LEWIS AND SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF
AND RR GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
INITIAL LK EFFECT BAND...ALL SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION WOULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT CAA IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER...FURTHER INCREASING EL HEIGHTS AND INSTABILITY.
SCANT BUOYANCY OWING TO LK TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S HAS
ALREADY RESULTED IN CG LIGHTNING IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SPORADIC STRIKES. WITH GRADUAL VEERING OF
CLOUD-BEARING FLOW FROM THE SW TO THE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO THE
CYCLONE OVER WRN QB TRACKING E/NEWD....INCREASINGLY OPTIMAL LONG LK
FETCH AND UPSLOPE TOWARDS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL RATES THIS MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 01/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43987622 44317549 44507499 44417470 44117474 43817495
            43657518 43557546 43467579 43477615 43557637 43987622

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 2, 12:37 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cattaraugus, Chautauqua	4 hr
Jan 2, 10:13 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Hamilton, Herkimer, Lewis, Oswego	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.