Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 291

March 19, 201224 counties in Minnesota; 10 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 19, 2012, 3:29 PM CDT for 24 counties in Minnesota; 10 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 19, 2012, 3:29 PM CDT (20:29 UTC)
Expired: Mar 19, 2012, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 34 counties

Becker County, MN, Benton County, MN, Big Stone County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Pope County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Richland County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 279 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 484 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -388 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1152 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 179 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

236 
ACUS11 KWNS 192030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192029
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-192230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 192029Z - 192230Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

LATEST VIS SAT INDICATED CU DEVELOPING NWD BENEATH ERODING CAP INTO
ERN ND. STORMS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FURTHER
S IN WRN IA WERE BEING MAINTAINED AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WAS
OCCURRING IN FAR SE ND IN MODEST SFC CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
WITH LITTLE INHIBITION LEFT AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG...SUSTAINED/STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KT WILL FAVOR BOTH
ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
ADDITIONALLY...RUC PFC SOUNDINGS AND MVX VAD INDICATE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FOR SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED
BUT BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WW SOON
BUT WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   48579668 47069460 46069397 45469401 45229429 45029518
            45299639 46819800 47899881 48419858 48719804 48799755
            48779705 48579668

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 19, 1:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Stone, Blue Earth, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Faribault and 18 more	116 min
Mar 19, 6:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Carver, Dakota, Dodge, Fillmore, Freeborn and 11 more	62 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.