Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 274

March 18, 201210 counties in Kansas; Frontier County, Red Willow County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 18, 2012, 5:05 PM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas; Frontier County, Red Willow County, Nebraska. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2012, 5:05 PM CDT (22:05 UTC)
Expired
Mar 18, 2012, 6:30 PM CDT
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Decatur County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Frontier County, NE, Red Willow County, NE

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2012-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 122 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2012-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 121 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
122 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-408 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1611 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
121 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

105 
ACUS11 KWNS 182205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182205 
NEZ000-KSZ000-182330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS AND SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 182205Z - 182330Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION AND A
POSSIBLE WW OVER WRN KS AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN NEB. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT A WINDOW WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
WRN KS JUST WEST OF AND NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
INTO THE 40S AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED. THE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH AND MAY REMAIN IN THE DRYER AIR
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
THESE STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS WWD AS DRYLINE
RETREATS DURING THE EVENING. HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT...BUT DEEP SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
MOREOVER...0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS. STORM COVERAGE REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP
EAST OF DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.
NEVERTHELESS A FEW HOUR WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
DURING THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 03/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37150071 38210097 39700109 40820072 40659999 39209998
            37659986 37080009 37150071

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.