Mesoscale Discussion 272

Issued

Mar 18, 2012, 1:49 PM EDT (17:49 UTC)

Expired

Mar 18, 2012, 4:15 PM EDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

590 
ACUS11 KWNS 181750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181749
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-182015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN INDIANA...CENTRAL/NRN
KY...SWRN/S-CENTRAL OH.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181749Z - 182015Z

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION OF TSTMS TO SVR LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR
OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL
EXPECTED...AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS FROM MOST INTENSE
DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOLS.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND OBSERVED VWP DATA INDICATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SRN LM...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN/ERN
INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER EXTREME NERN
INDIANA AS OF 17Z.  THIS FEATURE CORRESPONDS TO WELL-DEFINED COLD
POCKET OF -17 TO -19 C TEMPS IN 12Z 500-MB ANALYSIS.  500-MB TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD 10-15 KT THROUGH AFTERNOON...REACHING
SERN LOWER MI...WRN LE...AND N-CENTRAL TO SERN OH BY 00Z.  CLEAR
SLOT AND COLLOCATED MIDLEVEL HEIGHT-GRADIENT/WIND ENHANCEMENT NOW
OVER CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL KY AND SWRN OH WILL SHIFT ENEWD
IN STEP WITH MCV.  AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO ERODE ALREADY WEAK MLCINH BENEATH CLEAR
SLOT AND MIDLEVEL WIND MAX.  MOIST ADVECTION FROM SW SHOULD OFFSET
VERTICAL MIXING ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MID-50S TO LOW-60S F SFC DEW
POINTS...WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY 20Z.  VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS FIELD OF CU/TCU ALREADY GROWING IN DEPTH/DENSITY ATTM
WITHIN ROUGHLY 80 NM RADIUS OF SDF.  GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARIES OR ANY OTHER DISTINCT FOCI APPARENT IN SFC
ANALYSIS...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD GRADUALLY DURING NEXT
2-3 HOURS...RESULTING ULTIMATELY IN SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS.  MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STRUCTURES...WITH SPORADIC SUPERCELL MODES ALSO POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE
HAIL THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37108584 37248654 37788683 38128688 38988664 39598615
            40268519 40178382 39888305 39468256 38718258 38308275
            37598366 37118527 37108584

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.