Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 270

March 18, 201247 counties in Illinois

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 18, 2012, 1:41 AM CDT for 47 counties in Illinois. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2012, 1:41 AM CDT (06:41 UTC)
Expired
Mar 18, 2012, 3:15 AM CDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 47 counties

Bond County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Knox County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Marion County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Richland County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Wayne County, IL, Woodford County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2012-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2012-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -27 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1443 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
26 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

987 
ACUS11 KWNS 180641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180641 
INZ000-ILZ000-180815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 180641Z - 180815Z

THE BAND OF ONGOING STORMS...EAST OF THE BURLINGTON IA/QUINCY IL AND
ST. LOUIS MO AREAS...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK 
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  THIS IS ALSO ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH HAS OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING MODERATELY LARGE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE.  DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES...AND
LIKELY WILL REMAIN SO AS LONG AS ACTIVITY PERSISTS.  IT APPEARS THAT
THIS COULD BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AT LEAST INTO THE 09-10Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS LONGER...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA.  BUT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION...BEYOND WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

..KERR.. 03/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41009076 41379039 41548954 41228887 40798819 39608745
            38838758 38278832 38428918 38728971 39969074 41009076

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.