Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 265

March 16, 201226 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 16, 2012, 1:34 AM CDT for 26 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 16, 2012, 1:34 AM CDT (06:34 UTC)
Expired
Mar 16, 2012, 3:30 AM CDT
In force
116 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 26 counties

Audrain County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dent County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Howard County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Saline County, MO, Texas County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 225 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-03-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1409 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-03-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 41 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1409 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1284 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

507 
ACUS11 KWNS 160634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160634 
MOZ000-160830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MO VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 160634Z - 160830Z

LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. 
BUT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS ENOUGH...GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE
PROHIBITIVE INHIBITION ON THE BROAD EASTERN FRINGE OF WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING EAST OF THE PLAINS...TO SUPPORT CONTINUING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. 
MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING UPSTREAM OF WEAKENING
STORM CLUSTERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA...WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CHILLICOTHE...SEDALIA AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. 
ALTHOUGH FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FURTHER
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH....STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG...MOSTLY
BASED ABOVE A GENERALLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES PROBABLY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SPORADIC MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS PULSES...DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR. 
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
10-12Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

..KERR.. 03/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39889379 39989285 39049160 37679130 37199161 37349261
            38179336 39089371 39599396 39889379

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.