Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 263
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 15, 2012, 8:02 PM EDT for 18 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 58 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 15, 2012, 8:02 PM EDT (00:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 15, 2012, 9:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 58 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 22 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1537 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -34 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 984 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 143 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 177 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.2
- Supercell composite
- 11.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
306
ACUS11 KWNS 160002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160002
MIZ000-160100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76...
VALID 160002Z - 160100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76
CONTINUES.
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WW AREA. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LARGE HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER DARK. THE WW MAY BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VICINITY OF A CONFLUENT ZONE...NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORT
WAYNE IND TO EAST OF SAGINAW MI. SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY
MAINTAIN ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL COOLING
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SURFACE-BASED
STORMS...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BECOME LESS
PROBABLE WITH TIME. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE THAT LED TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW LOCATED PER 00Z WV IMAGERY OVER ERN MI
AND SRN ONTARIO. WITH ITS EWD PROGRESSION...TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE IN
ITS WAKE MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF MI...WITH A FRONT STILL SITUATED ACROSS
THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF IMPLIED
ASCENT NOW APPROACHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES/WI...WHICH MAY STILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AFTER
DARK.
..HURLBUT.. 03/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43498425 44088301 43578251 42808255 41958311 41778384
41888467 42728441 43498425Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.