Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 253
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 14, 2012, 1:56 PM CDT for 17 counties in Illinois; 8 counties in Kentucky; 7 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 14, 2012, 1:56 PM CDT (18:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 14, 2012, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 32 counties
Alexander County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Washington County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Livingston County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO
The radar
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2183 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -32 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 638 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -42 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -15 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
894
ACUS11 KWNS 141856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141856
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-142100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...FAR SRN IL...FAR WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141856Z - 142100Z
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN MO...FAR SRN IL...AND
FAR WRN KY. EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT LIMITS THE NEED
FOR A WW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR HAS
KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. ADDITIONALLY... NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT ABOVE 700 MB. AS A RESULT...AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG EXISTS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...OWING TO THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT /LOWER
MARGINS FOR PERSISTENT STORMS/. CONSEQUENTLY...AN ISOLATED THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
..MOSIER.. 03/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 36498957 36468989 36779024 37379029 38348999 38478939
38178830 37268807 36548877 36498957Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.