Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 240

March 11, 201221 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 11, 2012, 7:56 AM CDT for 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 11, 2012, 7:56 AM CDT (12:56 UTC)
Expired
Mar 11, 2012, 10:30 AM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 21 counties

Angelina County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Polk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX

The radar

The Houston radar (KHGX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-03-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 182 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-03-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 246 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
182 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
452 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
246 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
294 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

816 
ACUS11 KWNS 111256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111256 
LAZ000-TXZ000-111530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO FAR WESTERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 111256Z - 111530Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP/GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL
TX/EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN LA. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT A WATCH COULD
BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED
TSTMS ONGOING EARLY DAY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...THE GRAZING
SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED/MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS
INCREASINGLY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX/FAR WESTERN LA TODAY. AS SUCH...SURFACE BASED
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT...WITH
INCIPIENT SIGNS OF WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/INCREASING CG LIGHTNING
ALREADY NOTED NORTH OF HOUSTON VICINITY. ACCORDINGLY...THE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF-NMM AND SPC EXPERIMENTAL SSEO...IMPLY THAT STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP/MATURE INTO LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITHIN A
PERSISTENT SSW-NNE CORRIDOR OF INCREASING MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. GIVEN THIS ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION/THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...SHEAR
PROFILES COINCIDENT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME HAIL.

..GUYER.. 03/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   28849549 29729606 30889583 31629494 31499363 30699348
            29689415 28849549

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 11, 11:31 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty and 9 more89 min
Mar 11, 11:55 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Chambers, Galveston, Gregg, Hardin, Harrison and 16 more7 hr
Mar 11, 2:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJasper, Newton, Orange, Sabine118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.