Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 233

March 7, 20125 counties in Kansas; 28 counties in Oklahoma; Hemphill County, Wheeler County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 7, 2012, 7:36 PM CST for 5 counties in Kansas; 28 counties in Oklahoma; Hemphill County, Wheeler County, Texas. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 7, 2012, 7:36 PM CST (01:36 UTC)
Expired
Mar 7, 2012, 9:00 PM CST
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 35 counties

Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Harper County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washington County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Hemphill County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lamont, OK at 00:00Z on 2012-03-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 645 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lamont, OK at 00:00Z on 2012-03-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 134 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
645 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1207 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
134 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

997 
ACUS11 KWNS 080136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080136 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-080300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CST WED MAR 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...WRN/NRN OK...FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 080136Z - 080300Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO NRN OK AND SRN KS TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR A WW.

AT 01Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM
MKC SWWD TOWARD AVK IN NRN OK TO AMA IN THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT
AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AREA VWP/S AND PROFILERS INDICATE SLY FLOW
AT 1 KM AGL IS ACCELERATING OVER TX AND OK...WHICH WILL AID IN
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE COLD/STABLE NEAR SURFACE
AIRMASS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...OBSERVED 00Z RAOBS
SHOW THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...WHICH IS LEADING TO MUCAPE VALUES ROOTED AT 850 MB RANGING
FROM 500-1000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS WELL AS
INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE 30-45 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED /MAINLY ELEVATED/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KT...SOME RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...MARGINAL BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR
WEATHER THREAT...AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..GARNER.. 03/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36589987 37619736 37669614 36789558 35579728 34549968
            35450065 36589987

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 8, 10:19 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Choctaw, McCurtain, Pushmataha56 min
Mar 8, 2:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Coal, Cotton and 14 more66 min
Mar 8, 2:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Falls and 18 more62 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.