Mesoscale Discussion 2249

Issued

Dec 28, 2012, 11:02 PM CST (05:02 UTC)

Expired

Dec 29, 2012, 12:30 AM CST

In force

88 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Bay County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gulf County, FL

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

927 
ACUS11 KWNS 290503
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290502
FLZ000-290630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 PM CST FRI DEC 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290502Z - 290630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IS EVIDENT JUST OFF THE FL
PANHANDLE COAST...AND MAY EXTEND INLAND A SHORT DISTANCE FROM
ROUGHLY DESTIN TO APALACHICOLA.  WW NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THREAT THAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND AREA.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STORM MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN
GULF...ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 MILES OFFSHORE.  THIS STORM IS ONGOING ON
THE NRN FRINGE OF AN AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...JUST SW OF
THE WARM FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY PENSACOLA SEWD
ACROSS THE ERN GULF.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FL COASTAL AREAS /PER LATEST VWPS/...BUT WITH THE WARM
FRONT OFFSHORE AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE NERN/COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONT...ANY SURFACE-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO AREAS NOT FAR NE OF THE IMMEDIATE WARM FRONTAL ZONE.

THAT BEING SAID...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NEWD
PROGRESS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN A SLOW INCREASE IN TORNADO THREAT
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS SE OF DESTIN DOWN TO THE APALACHICOLA AREA.
ATTM...EXPECT THREAT TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...AND EXTEND ONLY INTO
SRN WALTON/SWRN WASHINGTON/BAY/SWRN CALHOUN/GULF COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  GIVEN THIS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION -- PARTICULARLY
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AREA
-- FOR ANY SIGNS THAT THE THREAT COULD BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE
AREALLY...AND THUS NECESSITATE POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 12/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   29198714 29938716 30448644 30558572 30278505 29458432
            28548445 29198714

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.