Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2233

December 26, 201232 counties in Indiana; 27 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 26, 2012, 10:39 AM EST for 32 counties in Indiana; 27 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 26, 2012, 10:39 AM EST (15:39 UTC)
Expired
Dec 26, 2012, 4:45 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 59 counties

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clinton County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Grant County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Union County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Wells County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Huron County, OH, Logan County, OH, Marion County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Preble County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Richland County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 236 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2012-12-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2012-12-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 79 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
660 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

079 
ACUS11 KWNS 261540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261539
OHZ000-INZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN INDIANA...W-CNTRL/NWRN/N-CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 261539Z - 262145Z

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND NEWD FROM
CNTRL INDIANA/W-CNTRL OH INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL OH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ITS MATURE STAGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE
ERN/NRN SEMICIRCLES OF THE DEEP CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
NEWD EXPANSION OF HEAVY SNOW FROM CNTRL INDIANA/W-CNTRL OH INTO
NWRN/N-CNTRL OH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY A MODEST CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OWING TO
NARROW ELEVATED CAPE LAYERS TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF
1-1.5 IN/HR. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS W-CNTRL OH INDICATE THIS
INSTABILITY BEING MANIFESTED AS THUNDERSNOW...AND A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE SNOW RATES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDANT
TO THE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW IN THE 0-1-KM LAYER
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST
KILOMETER AGL WILL SUPPORT 20-30 MPH WINDS AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL LIE WITHIN A CORRIDOR
FROM CNTRL INDIANA INTO NWRN OH WHERE THE TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SNOW TO CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND A BLIZZARD THREAT.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CNTRL IND SUGGEST VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER
MILE WITH HEAVY SNOW...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..COHEN.. 12/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41278224 40758251 40548311 39998396 39588449 39428594
            39688648 40118666 40918632 41548550 41678466 41658364
            41478280 41278224

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 26, 3:25 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford and 45 more6 hr
Dec 26, 3:29 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCElkhart, LaGrange, Saint Joseph, Steuben3 hr
Dec 26, 6:46 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAthens, Washington4 hr
Dec 26, 9:57 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoshocton, Delaware, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Guernsey and 8 more5 hr
Dec 26, 11:40 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Carroll, Columbiana, Geauga, Holmes, Mahoning and 8 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.