Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 219

March 2, 201218 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 2, 2012, 5:04 PM EST for 18 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 2, 2012, 5:04 PM EST (22:04 UTC)
Expired
Mar 2, 2012, 9:00 PM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Antrim County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Lake County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2012-03-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2012-03-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -15 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
614 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

101 
ACUS11 KWNS 022204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022204 
MIZ000-030200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NW LWR MI PENINSULA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 022204Z - 030200Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NW PORTIONS LWR MI PENINSULA.

MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ONGOING ACROSS LWR PENINSULA OF MI IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IND RESPONSE TO NEWD
MOTION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NRN IN. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF AREA.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
AND SFC CAA WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE. FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS AND 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
MI...ERN WI...AND ERN IL. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

..MOSIER/HURLBUT.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   44658615 45028592 45448546 45748438 45558355 45078347
            44708407 44008468 43468509 42968606 43418642 44078650
            44208630 44658615

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.