Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2159

December 15, 2012Hubbard County, Itasca County, Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2012, 9:24 AM CST for Hubbard County, Itasca County, Minnesota. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 15, 2012, 9:24 AM CST (15:24 UTC)
Expired
Dec 15, 2012, 1:30 PM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2012-12-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2012-12-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 139 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
552 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
139 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
158 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

535 
ACUS11 KWNS 151524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151524 
MNZ000-151930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0924 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 151524Z - 151930Z

SUMMARY...A TRANSIENT FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL SUPPORT VERY
LOCALIZED/BRIEF FREEZING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.02 TO 0.04 INCH AN
HOUR. A PHASE CHANGE TO RAIN AND THEN SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...12Z ABR AND MSX SOUNDINGS REFLECT A WARM LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SUBFREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW OBS ARE
REPORTING FZRA...RATES HAVE APPROACHED 0.04 INCHES AT TIMES /PER
PARK RAPIDS MN 1436Z OB/. A SUBTLE RISE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OWING TO DIURNAL HEATING AND VERY WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW A
BRIEF PHASE CHANGE TO RAIN. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR ERN NEB/WRN IA AS OF 15Z WILL TRACK NEWD...WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..DISPIGNA.. 12/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47469524 47959436 48039346 48099284 47919266 47719275
            47199313 47029391 46989502 47469524

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 4:26 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Lyon, Yellow Medicine5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.