Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2106
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 7, 2012, 12:55 PM EST for 10 counties in New Jersey; 5 counties in New York; Bucks County, Delaware County, Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 7, 2012, 12:55 PM EST (17:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 7, 2012, 4:00 PM EST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, New York County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Bucks County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 852 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 169 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
572
ACUS11 KWNS 071756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071755
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-072100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST WED NOV 07 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA OF CT/NY/NJ
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 071755Z - 072100Z
SUMMARY...A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR. OTHERWISE...A
BROADER TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH RATES NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH 1 IN/HR.
DISCUSSION...METARS CONFIRM MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM NEAR NYC
TO HARTFORD. THIS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
850-700 MB JET AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT THAT THIS ASCENT WILL WANE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL
INTENSITY DESPITE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER A BROADER AREA AS THE
THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN COOLS AOB FREEZING. AS SUCH...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD PEAK NEAR 1 IN/HR FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z.
..GRAMS.. 11/07/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
LAT...LON 40667400 40017493 39767508 39737523 39847545 40037542
40287528 40687497 41637389 42037282 41917275 41217319
40667400Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.