Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2103
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 5, 2012, 5:25 PM CST for 5 parishes in Louisiana; 24 counties in Texas. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 5, 2012, 5:25 PM CST (23:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 5, 2012, 7:00 PM CST
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 29 counties
Allen Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Austin County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Colorado County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Orange County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wharton County, TX
The radar
The Houston radar (KHGX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 126 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -139 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 665 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 112 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
458 ACUS11 KWNS 052325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052325 LAZ000-TXZ000-060100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673... VALID 052325Z - 060100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WITH SVR WINDS/HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WW 673...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS LYING WITHIN 60-75 MILES OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE SW LA COAST. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A DIFFUSE FRONT TRAILING WSW OF A MESOLOW LOCATED 30 SSE ALEXANDRIA TO 50 WNW BEAUMONT TX WITH A REMNANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FARTHER WEST INTO S-CNTRL TX. THE STRONGEST SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE FEATURES IS APPARENT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF THE WW AREA...WHERE ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. STORMS COULD ALSO EVOLVE FROM THE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DECK OVER E-CNTRL TX THAT LEADS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN 60-75 MILES OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE SW LA COAST...WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IN THIS AREA...THE PRESENCE OF 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WINDS/HAIL. ELSEWHERE...LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. ..COHEN.. 11/05/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29169276 28729768 30309768 30739274 29169276
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 1:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 21 more | 86 min |
| Nov 5, 2:08 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron | 7 hr |
| Nov 5, 4:43 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Acadia, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Evangeline and 22 more | 92 min |
| Nov 5, 5:29 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 26 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.