Mesoscale Discussion 2097

Issued

Nov 3, 2012, 3:11 PM CDT (20:11 UTC)

Expired

Nov 3, 2012, 5:45 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

5%

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

624 
ACUS11 KWNS 032011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032011 
TXZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL THROUGH SW TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 032011Z - 032245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...COMPLEX PATTERN MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AND OVER PARTS OF SW TX AHEAD OF FRONT.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS AT 19Z INCLUDED WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE
LOW NEAR DAL.  SLOW-MOVING FRONT...THAT MAY BE QUASISTATIONARY IN A
FEW LOCALES...EXTENDS WSWWD FROM METROPLEX TO BETWEEN ABI-SJT...TO
PRESIDIO COUNTY.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE NET/ERRATIC SWD DRIFT. 
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT...BUT ALSO SMALL
CINH...ACCOMPANYING FRONT.  HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
POORLY ORGANIZED.  FRONTAL REGIME EXTENDS SWWD INTO MORE COMPLEX
MESOSCALE SFC AND UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT
MORE ORGANIZED BUT STILL MRGL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER SW TX.

PREFRONTAL THETAE BOUNDARY RELATED TO COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND WEAK PRECIP/OUTFLOW EFFECTS WAS DRAWN FROM FRONTAL
INTERSECTION OVER REAGAN COUNTY SSEWD OVER CROCKETT COUNTY THEN
SSWWD INTO NRN SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA...AND WAS
DRIFTING EWD.  FARTHER E...GRAVITY WAVES WERE EVIDENT MAINLY IN
REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS...MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT...POTENTIALLY
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER SRN HILL COUNTRY AND
NEARBY PORTIONS RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  SFC HEATING WITH TEMPS RISING
THROUGH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S RESULTS IN MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG IN
MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...MAXIMIZED INVOF MOIST AXIS DRAWN
NEAR SJT...30 NE DRT...UVA...20 S VCT.  REMNANT MCV WAS EVIDENT OVER
SRN LEA COUNTY NM MOVING ENEWD ABOUT 15 KT...AND PROGGED TO TURN EWD
ACROSS REMAINDER NRN PERMIAN BASIN REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 
SLGT ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW TO ITS SE CONTRIBUTED TO EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES 25-35 KT IN MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS.  THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...AS PRECONVECTIVE BUOYANCY INCREASES THEN LEVELS
OFF...SOME OF THESE MRGL DEEP-SHEAR FIELDS MAY EXPAND/SHIFT EWD INTO
AREA OF PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION OVER ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL
COUNTRY REGION ALSO...AIDING IN ITS ORGANIZATION.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH STG
VEERING BUT WEAK SPEEDS CHARACTERIZING OBSERVED AND FCST
BOUNDARY-LAYER HODOGRAPHS.  TSTMS NOW MOVING ENEWD FROM DAVIS
MOUNTAINS WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR...BUT STILL MAY OFFER STG GUSTS AND HAIL.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 11/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30720396 31000373 31100311 31390198 32649901 32939717
            32679688 31319762 29979902 28770051 29100060 29160075
            29260078 29300087 29450106 29510122 29660121 29570130
            29780140 29770208 29870230 29750234 29740264 29240290
            29630317 29780345 30010382 30410394 30720396

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.