Alert archive / Massachusetts / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2080
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 19, 2012, 11:50 PM EDT for 8 counties in Massachusetts; Suffolk County, New York; 5 counties in Rhode Island. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 19, 2012, 11:50 PM EDT (03:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 20, 2012, 1:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Bristol County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Essex County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Suffolk County, NY, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI
The radar
The Boston radar (KBOX), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Chatham, MA (KCHH), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 614 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 473 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 361 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 457 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 8.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
563
ACUS11 KWNS 200350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200350
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-200545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CT...RI...ERN MA...ERN LONG ISLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 200350Z - 200545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WEAK TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT OFF THE NE COAST. WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH TRANSIENT
ROTATION WILL RESULT IN A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRONG WIND GUST.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS JUST OFF THE CT/RI/MA COAST HAVE INCREASED OVER
THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG
SLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT
IS ALSO BEING PROVIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK. THESE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FIELDS ARE
COUNTERED BY A SURFACE INVERSION DEPICTED BY 00Z RAOBS AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. RECENT RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THE TSTMS HAVE
BECOME STRONGER OVER THE PAST HOUR. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AT
LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE STORM POSE A LOW PROBABILITY
TORNADO THREAT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL. LOW COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 10/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...
LAT...LON 42096996 41497041 41117118 40817240 40957288 41437280
42237239 42677179 42697082 42096996Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Rhode Island, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.