Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2071

October 17, 201230 counties in Alabama

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 17, 2012, 11:10 PM CDT for 30 counties in Alabama. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 17, 2012, 11:10 PM CDT (04:10 UTC)
Expired
Oct 18, 2012, 12:45 AM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 30 counties

Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Cullman County, AL, DeKalb County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Madison County, AL, Marion County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

The radar

The Birmingham radar (KBMX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 00:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 00:00Z on 2012-10-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 00:00Z on 2012-10-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1776 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

109 
ACUS11 KWNS 180410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180410 
ALZ000-180545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 180410Z - 180545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BAND OF STORMS ADVANCING EWD INTO AL MAY REQUIRE NEW WW
ISSUANCE...

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS MARCHING EWD ACROSS NRN MS ATTM.  THE DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS ACROSS AL INCLUDES A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH
TIME AS STORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

STILL...GIVEN THE WELL-ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LINE -- OWING TO THE
VERY DYNAMIC MID-LEVEL SYSTEM...EXPECT SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
THUS...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 10/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34908563 34058549 32878621 32288740 32528833 34018810
            34958729 34908563

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 17, 8:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColbert, Franklin, Lauderdale4 hr
Oct 18, 1:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington96 min
Oct 18, 2:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Marengo, Monroe and 2 more65 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.